RoofIQ Risk Assessment
Prepared for BDE Florida · confidential
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Best viewed on desktop. This report is optimized for a wider screen — open on a laptop for the full interactive experience.
PREPARED BY
PREPARED FOR
BDE · FLORIDA
May 2026

Your RoofIQ Risk Assessment

A reconciled picture of your HVAC fleet across 28 Florida Taco Bell locations — three sources cross-checked, every dollar of three-plus years of work-order history modeled, and a fixed-price program built around the result.

01Your data, as we understand it

Three sources, one reconciled fleet.

Your ServiceTitan history showed one picture. Our RoofIQ aerial survey showed another. We reconciled both into a single, audit-trail-clean view of what's actually on your roofs — then ran every work order from the past three-plus years against it. This analysis and proposal cover BDE's 28 Tampa Bay metro locations only; the Orlando-area locations are excluded from scope.

Data scope
Sources: ServiceTitan history + RoofIQ aerial survey · reconciled May 2026
Jan 6 2023
Jan 1 2024
Jan 1 2025
May 5 2026
Reactive spend
$380K
over 3.3 years · ~$116K/yr
Work orders
450
417 reactive · 28 install · 5 OOS
Locations
28
Tampa Bay metro · 15 cities
Priceable assets
103
62 RTU · 28 exhaust · 13 MUA
01How this report was built

A full and reconciled view of every roof.

Every number downstream is anchored on a register cross-checked across your historical service data, what aerial survey verified on the roof, and what your live monitoring platform reports.

1
Historical & live data
three-plus years of service history + continuous monitoring
ServiceTitan
450 WOs · 56-unit registry · 3-yr cost history
Monaire
86 RTUs & 122 refrigeration sensors monitored
2
RoofIQ aerial scan
independent verification of what's physically on each roof
Aerial imagery
Public records
3rd-party data
01.aWhat's being scoped

28 locations. 103 priceable assets.

The asset register was built from three sources: ServiceTitan for your equipment registry and work-order history, RoofIQ aerial survey for what's physically on each roof, and Monaire for continuous runtime and fault data on the RTU and refrigeration fleet.

01.bFleet age distribution

Older units cost more to keep running.

Left: how the 47 RTUs in your ServiceTitan registry split by age. Right: the typical annual reactive spend per RTU for a QSR rooftop unit in each age band — Scription's benchmark range across comparable fleets. The marker on each bar shows where BDE's own per-unit spend lands. BDE's units track right inside the benchmark, and the cost climbs with every age band — a unit in the 7–9yr range costs roughly a third more per year than a new one, and that climb steepens past 10 years.

Asset count
ServiceTitan registry
Age bucket
Reactive $/yr per RTU
Bars = Benchmark · ▸ = BDE Actual
01.cLocation-level concentration

Three locations carry 27% of your spend.

Cumulative reactive spend with every location ranked highest-cost first. The closer the curve bows toward the upper-left, the more concentrated your risk. BDE's curve is moderate — your spend is real but spread broadly. Three locations dominate; eleven carry roughly two-thirds.

Per-location cumulative spend distribution

28 priceable locations · ranked by 3-year reactive spend
$380K · reactive only
11% → 27%
Top 3 locations (#29576 St. Pete, #29595 Tampa, #29577 Tampa) carry 27% of all reactive spend
39% → 67%
Top 11 locations carry 67% of all spend
1
Location had $0 reactive in the window — #41387 Spring Hill, just opened
01.dLocation-level heat

Where the dollars actually went.

Each cell is real spend from your ServiceTitan history. Locations are ranked by total reactive cost, and bucketed by per-WO ticket size. The hotter the red, the larger the individual events. Toggle between 2024 and 2025 and you'll see the heat shift right in the cells — more spend landing in the larger ticket-size bands year over year, which means more high-severity repairs as the fleet ages.

$0
$10K+ $ spend at location × ticket-size band
02Cost & risk drivers

Four forces shaping your next 24 months.

Each is observable in BDE's data or in the operating environment around it. Each compounds the others. The reactive line has held flat for three years on capex you've already deployed — these are the pressures pushing against that.

01

Aging equipment costs more, every year

Across BDE's own data, the climb is already visible: locations with 0–3yr equipment averaged $3.9K/yr in reactive spend, 4–6yr averaged $4.2K/yr, and 7–9yr averaged $5.2K/yr. That's a real ~33% increase in just six years of age — and it's tracking equipment your registry knows about.

+4
ST-registered RTUs cross the 10-year line in the next 24 months: #29576 St. Petersburg RTU 2, #29585 Bradenton RTU 3, and both #34960 Bradenton units. The two BDE locations whose oldest equipment is in the 13–15yr range already averaged $7.5K/yr in reactive — that's the trajectory the rest of the fleet bends toward as it ages.
02

Service costs only go up.

Outside of PMs and capex investment, every force acting on a reactive service bill pushes it higher. R-410A refrigerant has been under EPA production restriction since January 2025, and allocations stepped down again in 2026 — installed pricing has roughly doubled in three years. The bigger near-term issue for BDE is evaporator and condenser coils — the coils across your fleet aren't standard off-the-shelf items, which means longer lead times, more shopping per repair, and tech time spent waiting for parts that aren't on the truck.

R-410A installed cost per pound · industry distributor reporting · EPA AIM Act allocations
Affected on your fleet: Trane RTUs (your largest OEM at 28 units) and Lennox units (16 in the registry) both pull non-standard coils. The 7–9 year cluster — 10 RTUs in that band — is where coil pinholes, fouling, and corrosion failures historically concentrate, and the parts side is where the cost shows up.

And the cost of each call keeps climbing.

The bill for any given reactive event is a stack of layered increases. Some you can model; some you can't.

Known annual drivers
predictable, compoundable
~3% General inflation (CPI 5-yr average)
6–8% Historical supplier price increases
40–60% Contractor markup on supplier increases — passed through to you
Contingent drivers
volatile, hard to forecast
10–40% Tariff exposure on imported components
± Fuel surcharges on every truck roll
± Contractor labor rate hikes (HVAC tech shortage)
± Supplier shocks from supply chain or production cuts
± Future refrigerant phase-outs (R-32, R-454B transition costs)
03

Heat is the constant stressor. Storms are the punctuation.

The fleet runs at full cooling load ~8 months a year in Tampa Bay. 2026 is forecast hotter than normal; the hurricane season slightly below average — but BDE knows what "below average" looks like in practice.

2026 summer heat outlook
LOW HIGH
40–50%
chance of above-normal temperatures across the Gulf Coast (NOAA). Longer cooling hours per day, sustained for more weeks of the year.
2026 hurricane forecast (NOAA)
3–6
hurricanes
1–3
major (Cat 3+)
04

Protect the investment you've already made

BDE has already deployed $706K in unit replacements over 3.4 years — including the major 2024 refreshes at #30370 St. Petersburg (York → Trane, Aug 2024) and #31597 Tampa (York → Trane, Nov 2024). That capex did real work: it's the reason your reactive line tracks a near-flat ~$116K/yr instead of climbing the way an unrenovated fleet would. Capex slowed the bleed. It didn't stop it, and it never can.

$706K
already invested in replacements over 3.4 years
~$116K/yr
reactive held flat in 2025 — the result of that capex working
+$54K
projected reactive growth if nothing locks it in
Replacement spend
Capex deployed
Year
Reactive spend
Held flat ~$116K/yr
Where this goes from here: aging continues whether or not you replace more units. The 4 RTUs crossing 10 years in the next 24 months, the 15 RoofIQ-discovered older units already running, the rising parts cost stack, and the weather pressure — none of it stops. Capex can slow the curve again, but it can't lock the cost. What can: pricing the reactive risk now, at today's age and today's parts market, so the investment BDE has already made stays protected.
03Projection & the coverage

Where this lands — and what locks it down.

The cards below show the dollar exposure under four scenarios for the next 12 months — anchored on June 2026 to June 2027, the fiscal window the coverage decision actually applies to. Beneath them, the seven-year fan shows how those four percentiles widen as uncertainty compounds. The Scription program rate sits inside the bottom of the P25 band and grows at CPI on renewal — capped, predictable, and well below the median.

12-MONTH EXPOSURE · JUN 2026 → JUN 2027

Annual reactive spend — seven-year percentile fan

Tight near-term (~24 months), widening as uncertainty compounds. Hover any point for year-by-year values.
2023 — 2029
Historical actual
P25 best case
P50 expected
P75 above-normal
P90 stress
Scription program rate
The coverage

A predictable number. Locked in.

2026 program rate: $124K, fixed for the year — all-in on reactive component repairs, billed quarterly. Replacement decisions stay with BDE.

Scription 2026 · fixed
$124K
~$10,333/mo · ~$4,429 per location/yr
quarterly billing · no deductible
vs
Status quo · 2026 projected
~$134K
P25–P75 range $127K–$150K
median climbs to ~$175K by 2029 as aging and parts compound
What's included
All reactive component repairs across 103 priceable assets at 28 locations
No deductible
Warranty management on your behalf
Single invoice, single budget line
Replacement (RTU/MUA swap) priced separately
Refrigeration excluded today — but the 122 refrigeration points already on Monaire are easy scope to add later
Why this works for both sides
Your existing Monaire sensors let us see failures coming — so we catch the $300 fix before it becomes a $3,000 repair. That gap between a planned intervention and an emergency truck roll is the margin: BDE pays a lower, predictable number, and Scription profits from the savings. Coverage starts day one.
Next step

Let's walk through this together.

Thirty minutes with Gerritt to walk the findings, answer questions on the program terms, and align on a path from signed proposal to coverage going live.

Or reach out directly: gerritt.graham@scription.com